Uganda: What Museveni Should Fear After Bad NRM Polls

After nearly 40 years in power and running numerous election campaigns, President Yoweri Museveni has become a master of snatching victory at the national polls using whatever each cycle of internal NRM elections throws at him.

The President made this point on Aug.28 in the speech he delivered to delegates of the ruling NRM party at the Kololo National Ceremonial Grounds in Kampala soon after the final results of grueling internal elections that started in May were announced.

“If some problem comes, I handle it rationally and not emotionally,” he said as he put on a brave face in the face of his party’s mishandling of the recent major electoral process milestone that saw speaker after speaker dismiss the elections as shambolic.

“There is no election to talk about here,” said one of Museveni’s blue-eyed cadres; the Minister of ICT and National Guidance, Chris Baryomunsi, “Over 200 thugs from Kampala have been voting from polling station to polling station. I cannot associate with this kind of election.”

First Deputy Prime Minister Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga made similar comments citing widespread voter bribery, intimidation, and abuse of office.

“This undermines everything we have built as a party,” she told Museveni and delegates.

Minister Baryomunsi lost the election for the position of party vice chair-person Western Region and Kadaga lost the election for Second National Vice Chairperson (Female) and the duo could be dismissed as sour losers. The reality that the voters rejected and kicked out most of the electable leaders of the party’s policy organs; including all electable members of the Central Executive Committee (CEC), cannot be dismissed.

At the end of the exercise two major elections; of the National Youth League and National Entrepreneurs League were not concluded after fist-fights erupted among voters alleging widespread rigging.

The mud-slinging, ugly verbal exchanges, and fist fights have left the winners celebrating sour victories and losers vowing non-cooperation and even revenge.

Museveni’s challenge

Many pundits now argue that with his party leadership in shambles just months to the 2026 general elections, Museveni could be open to the biggest electoral upset in the history of his long reign. They argue that beneficiaries could include members of opposition political parties, especially the National Unity Platform (NUP) gaining more seats in parliament and local governments.

Although the arguments to back claims of an opposition surge resulting from the NRM’s shambolic internal elections are only partly convincing, it is not disputable that the election results have thrown up an organisational conundrum for the ruling party. Museveni’s challenge is organizational not electoral.

The party has the gigantic task of inducting nearly 70% new leaders or 80% in the case of the party Central Executive Committee (CEC) into the inner working of its electioneering machinery barely 150 days to the 2026 general election.

The main party administrative organ; the secretariat, remains undisturbed although its sister organs; the district and constituency executive committees, have been shaken by changes in elected members.

But all eyes will be on how President Museveni adapts to working with a 100% new set of members of CEC.

The case of newly elected CEC member Calvin David Echodu (Vice Chairperson Eastern Region) has come to symbolise the challenge Museveni is likely to face when dealing with new members.

Described as an entrepreneur, philanthropist, journalist, economist, Echodu is a mysterious personality who clearly has great mobilisation skills, political suave, business smarts, and a leader’s charisma.

He has been described as founder and former executive of Pilgrim Africa, an NGO headquartered in Kampala with strong presence in Soroti and north-eastern Uganda. Pilgrim Africa has since 2007 had a malaria centred health programs headed by Dr Dorothy Echodu and is well-entrenched in the international financing of malaria research, especially with organisations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID (former), WHO, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) and more.

One report that profiled Echodu described him as having an “assured calm and understated resolve” with an immaculate dress style. The profile said Echodu may be new to Museveni and the national stage but he has been involved in the eastern Uganda community for some time. For example, when in 2007 floods ravaged Teso region, Echodu’s organisation reportedly delivered aid swiftly and ahead of any government response. In 2006, Pilgrim Africa founded Beacon of Hope School in Soroti which in 2020 became an independent organisation and is now a grantee of Pilgrim Africa.

Echodu is said to trace his political journey to 2001 when he became a member of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). In 2021 Echodu contested in the Soroti City West Division MP a race and lost. To oust Mukula from CEC, Echodu framed his campaign with what has been described as a simple but potent slogan: Bringing New Energy to the Party.

Despite this, Museveni who had in July already met with Echodu, was unimpressed when Echodu emerged as a serious contender for the Vice-Chair Eastern against party stalwart Mike Mukula. Reports referencing a closed-door meeting of NRM Senior leaders, reportedly questioned Echodu’s credentials as a patriot when he lived for over 20 years in America, built a life there, and even took on American citizenship.

“Are you serving Uganda, or are you serving Washington?” Museveni reportedly asked him. Based on this, it became apparent that President Museveni Museveni who has known and worked closely with Mukula for almost as long as he has been in power would be uncomfortable working with Echodu who he barely knows.

After Echodu’s victory with 96% of the votes cast, however, Museveni showed his political smartness in a message on X (formerly Twitter).

The President tweeted: “At the ongoing NRM National Delegates Conference at Kololo Independence Grounds, I have received the withdrawal of Capt. Mike Mukula from the race of Vice Chairman Eastern Region in favor of Mr David Calvin Echodu. I consistently advocate for solution-based leadership; it’s not about who leads but what is accomplished. I commend the two leaders for going back to our principle of shared interest as opposed to individual position.”

Why CEC matters

The NRM CEC comprises the National Chairperson, 1st National Vice Chairperson, 2nd National Vice Chairperson (female), six vice chairpersons representing the regions of Uganda (East, Central, North, West, Kampala and Karamoja), the NRM secretariat boses (Secretary General, National Treasurer, Deputy Secretary General, Deputy National Treasurer), the Chairperson of NRM Parliamentary Caucus, all Chairpersons of the National Special League Committees, Chairpersons of Commissions, and an unspecified number of National Secretaries and Deputy National Secretaries.

Museveni had worked for years on this committee with the core of the old team comprising Rebecca Kadaga, Katongole Singh, and Mike Mukula. Other newer entrants included Chris Baryomunsi and Kiwanda Ssuubi. These were all voted out leaving only Museveni and Mzee Moses Kigongo whose positions are ring-fenced as per party tradition.

The CEC is a small committee of 18 members at least, but Museveni and Kigongo must now work with a new set of core leaders including the Speaker of Parliament, Anita Annet Among (Second National Vice Chairperson female), Salim Uhuru (Kampala Region), Haruna Kyeyune Kasolo (Central Region), Jonard Asiimwe (Western Region), David Calvin Echodu (Eastern Region), Denis Hamson Obua (Northern Region) and John Baptist Lokii (Karamoja Region).

There is another set of leaders who are members of CEC because they head national leagues of the party. These include Historicals, Women, Workers, Youth, Entrepreneurs, veterans, People With Disabilities (PWD), and the elderly. Two heads of leagues; Moses Mushabe (Veterans) and Adrine Kobusinge (Women) are new. Two positions, Entrepreneurs and Youth, remain unfilled but they will most likely get new leaders.

According to the NRM party organization, the CEC has 10 prescribed function but only three appear critical. The first is providing and exercising political leadership in the country, the second is supervising the day to day conduct of the organisation’s activities, and three, appointing the organisational functionaries from amongst members of NRM. These three functions mean that, if the NRM was a corporate entity, the CEC would be the management committee.

The CEC vets candidates seeking nomination for the offices of National Chairperson, Vice Chairperson, Secretary General, Deputy Secretary General and National Treasurer and Presidential candidate for NRM.

Critically, however, the CEC members are understood to be regularly interacting and in close proximity with the centre of executive power; the President. This may explain why, although members of CEC are volunteers who earn only allowances and not salary, the few slots are highly competitive. According to some reports, some candidates spent as much as Shs5 billion (aprox. US$1.5 million) on campaigns to get elected to position that ensure they are members of CEC.

The hottest contests for CEC seats show, however, that whatever happens in CEC is so strictly choreographed to ensure that it is of minimal impact in an election. That is possibly why even the most vocal and visible members of CEC were easily defeated. These include Rebecca Kadaga, Mike Mukula, Jim Muhwezi, Lydia Wanyoto, Godfrey Ssuubi Kiwanda, Chris Baryomunsi and others.

The hottest contests were those for positions held by people presumed to representatives of powerful constituencies, especially in Busoga, Buganda, and eastern Uganda.

Until Echodu’s emergence, NRM Teso politics has been negotiated between the powerful Speaker of Parliament Anita Among, the Vice President Jessica Alupo, and the flamboyant business mogul and CEC member Mike Mukula. Other players included area ministers and MPs. There have been whispers and open flare-ups of rivalries and camps but nothing to worry Museveni.

It is not clear how Mukula’s loss to Echodu will affect the electoral prospects of either the NRM party or Museveni. What is clear is that the Teso NRM organisational machine has just added a cog which could increase or reduce its smooth running.

Busoga fights back

The hottest CEC race was that between for Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga and current Speaker Anita Among for the CEC 2nd Vice President (female).

Matters came to a head when on Aug.24 at a meeting of members of the NRM National Executive Committee (NEC) which is a bigger gathering than CEC. It comprises the National Chairperson, 1st National Vice Chairperson, 2nd National Vice Chairperson (female), six vice chairpersons representing the regions of Uganda (East, Central, North, West, Kampala and Karamoja), the NRM secretariat boses (Secretary General, National Treasurer, Deputy Secretary General, Deputy National Treasurer) the National Secretaries of NRM, NRM Members of Parliament, NRM parliamentary flag bearers; NRM flag bearers for district chairpersons, Municipality mayors, NRM members of East Africa Legislative Assembly (EALA), National Executive Committee members of all Special Organs, All Chairpersons of NRM Branches in the Diaspora, 30 Members of NRM Historical Leaders Forum elected by the Forum, Chairpersons of NRM District Conferences, NRM Chairpersons of districts, Not more than ten eminent persons elected by the Council upon nomination by the Chairperson. Individuals who have made a special contribution to the struggle or who have special skills or experience attend the NEC as observers invited by the chairperson.

Before this big assembly, Kadaga told Museveni that he was mistaken in apparently “fighting” her in favour of Anita Among.

“Mr Chairman, I have been talking to you about this matter for some time. I have told you that if this position goes to a contest it will cause serious problems in my community,” she said, “People here might think that you are fighting an individual, but you are fighting a bigger community. That is not right for the politics of Uganda.”

In reply, President Museveni, said Kadaga was wrong at two levels.

“You are wrong to say that anyone is hunting you. And it is not correct for you to try to involve my people, the Basoga, giving the impression that, if it wasn’t for you, we wouldn’t have their support. This is not correct,” he said.

When the chips fell, Anita Among had emerged winner with 11,680 votes (92.8 per cent) to Kadaga’s 902 votes (7.2 per cent) out of the 12,582 total delegates who voted.

According to reports, the Bugweri District Woman MP Rachel Magoola praised delegates who remained loyal to Kadaga.

“I hail the people of Bugweri and other Busoga delegates for maintaining their support for Kadaga. In doing so, you demonstrated unity in diversity, a vital tool for ensuring representation on national decision-making tables,” she said, carrying the dominant regional sentiment.

According to commentators, both in and outside Busoga, Kadaga could be right that her loss to Anita Among, with Museveni’s apparent underhand, could cost NRM votes. This is mainly because Kadaga has for years been the face of Busoga in national politics. She has been vocal and consistently lobbied for Busoga on critical issues such as the Kyabazinga (kingship) institution, the sugarcane industry-driven poverty, the Isimba Dam Bridge which has reduced the time spent travelling between Kamuli and Kampala and the Jinja-Kampala Expressway which has not yet been built.

Critically, however, Anita Among secured her victory outside and not among Kadaga’s constituency; the Basoga. In Busoga, Anita Among got 499 votes (52%) to Kadaga’s 455 (48%).

Anita Among won in her husband’s home district of Buyende (69-9), in Kaliro (75-7), Namayingo (67-3), and Bugiri (96-19). But Kadaga was strong in the urban vote. She dominated in her home district of Kamuli (119-16), in Luuka (52-8), Mayuge (46-19), Bugweri (34-23), Namutumba (55-22), Jinja City (44-31), and Jinja District (28-15) and in Iganga (39-58).

What this means, according to some commenters, is that Museveni and the NRM party could suffer at the ballot in Busoga if grievances over the CEC race persist into the 2026 general election campaigns. In 2021 Kyagulanyi garnered 437,059 votes in Busoga region to defeat Museveni who got 404,802 and Museveni and the NRM could in 2026 easily have erased the difference of 32,000 votes in a region of 11 districts. That is now a toss-up.

Unfortunately for Kadaga, however, even if Museveni loses in Busoga, it will change nothing. In the last election in 2021, Museveni garnered just 36% of the vote in Busoga to the 63% of his main challenger Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu aka Bobi Wine. But Museveni went on to win the national presidential race.

It is at the level of MP that Busoga region could prove a game changer if the public anger at how Kadaga has been treated by Museveni and NRM persists. The Busoga sub-region has 41 MP slots and, in the last election, the opposition won only 4 constituencies. They could get more in 2026.

Eyes on Buganda

The fate of NRM in Busoga based on the process and results of the just concluded NRM internal elections can be contrasted with what pundits are now saying will happen in Buganda in 2026.

In the 2001, 2006 and 2011 elections, the main opposition candidate, Kiiza Besigye, only won consistently in one district; Kampala. In 2016 Besigye won three districts; Wakiso, Masaka and Kampala. In 2021 Bobi Wine’s NUP won more than half of his votes in his native Buganda region, where he took 64% of ballots cast. Of the 26 districts in Buganda sub-region, Museveni won only in eight namely; Rakai, Sembabule, Mubende, Kyankwanzi, Nakasongola Nakaseke, Lyantonde and Kiboga. NUP won 56 of its 58 seats in Buganda. According to pundits, NUP could do even better in 2026. They cite two critical factors. The first is the trend which shows that support for the NRM has been on a downward spiral since 2016 and escalated with the emergence of NUP.

The second factor is the growing call to Baganda to rally behind their ethnic flag. During the Kololo delegates conference, as the fight for the position of Vice President Central Region got heated, the incumbent Godfrey Ssuubi Kiwanda, sensed trouble. Initially it was because Buganda big-wigs; including former Vice President Gilbert Bukenya and former Speaker of Parliament Edward Ssekandi were lined up behind his rival, the Minister of State for Finance, Haruna Kasolo. But a closer look showed that Kiwanda was unlikely to defeat another close contender; challenge Moses Karangwa Kalisa; the NRM Chairperson of Kayunga District. In the 2021 fight for the position, Kiwanga had barely scraped through with 4,749 votes against Karangwa’s 3,701. To ensure a win, Kiwanda and another candidate; Joseph Mukasa sewava who heads Museveni’s digital media office, pulled. In the end Kasolo emerged winner after barely beating Karangwa with 50.3% of the vote. If the ethnic card persists, NRM has little chance of winning in central region.

By Independent (Kampala).