East Africa: Fostering Peace, Growth in the Horn Through Ethio-Somalia Ties

With an economy that is growing consistently by more than six percent every year, the vital importance of access to the sea for Ethiopia cannot be overemphasized. The outlet that Ethiopia currently uses is obviously not enough to accommodate all the transactions of such a huge and growing economy.

Ethiopia has little choice but to secure access to sea, through a host of diplomatic initiatives and talks with all the relevant entities.

Ethiopia had to battle hard on the diplomatic front as well, including at the level of the UN. Its leaders made repeated visits to Cairo to explain the Grand Renaissance Dam, GERD, giving assurances that the dam was not intended to inflict harm to anyone.

Three successive Ethiopian premiers have gone to Cairo to convince the leaders of the good intentions of Ethiopia, but little progress was made owing to the adamant and rigid stance of the Egyptian authorities.

Fortunately, this battle was also won thanks to the intense campaign carried out by Ethiopians and friends and allies of Ethiopia who argued positively for the Ethiopian side, citing not only other precedents in the administration of trans-boundary rivers in the world but also the relevant laws and regulations that have been used in similar circumstances.

Soliciting the UN Security Council to halt the project did not succeed because no indication of violations of international law or practice was observed.

Ethiopia’s strong lobby on a wide scale debunked the claims of downstream countries with a presentation of all the necessary technical features of the dam and the regime of the flow of the river based on meticulous study.

The claim that the water of the Nile belonged to Egypt and Sudan was only based on colonial pacts to which Ethiopia was not even a signatory and had to be exposed and presented to the international community. Those who supported Egypt and Sudan without looking at the case carefully had to change their stance after Ethiopia’s explanation.

The Ethiopian government had the duty and obligation to fight poverty and give the chance of a decent life to its nationals without violating any international rules and abiding by UN guidelines that require every country to exert every effort to improve the livelihoods of its citizens.

Now that the GERD is done, Ethiopia has turned its face to remove another stumbling block that is limiting its growth, namely access to the sea. This situation has been preventing Ethiopia from growing to its fullest potential. Many argue that the fact that Ethiopia was ‘condemned’ to be a landlocked country relates to the various diplomatic blunders its former leaders had committed. History tells us that Ethiopia had always had its access to the sea for centuries and only the political developments of the last few decades deprived it of this reality. What was observed is that it was miscalculations by Ethiopian leaders that practically resulted in the forfeiture of a people’s legitimate rights.

Indeed Ethiopia has since been recorded as the biggest landlocked country in the world, and what is more perplexing is that it is only a few kilometers away from the nearest outlet. Hence, the current government has begun its efforts to rectify, at least in part, the past wrongs and launched a diplomatic initiative to access the sea based on mutual benefits.

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) made the declaration that Ethiopia was bent on seeking a new route to access the sea, all parties that considered themselves a part of this scheme began to wonder what the next move of Ethiopia could be. When Ethiopia signed a MOU with Somaliland, the Republic of Somalia immediately condemned the move as supporting the ‘breakaway territory’ with which it had been in contention for decades.

However, it was evident to all that Somaliland has for all practical purposes been living autonomously with its own multiple elections carried out and using its own currency. It has also been engaged in several informal relations with many international actors short of full diplomatic recognition.

This de facto status has always been contested by Mogadishu but at the same time, Somalia has been rocked by several issues of security and peace caused by relentless attacks by terrorists. On the other hand, Somaliland was arguing that it had been enjoying a peaceful life of its own and did not need the approval or control of Mogadishu.

Ethiopia argued that it added little to this already consolidated reality and the signed MOU was intended to secure access to the sea which it desperately needed. However many exaggerated this move as an encroachment on the sovereignty and integrity of Somalia.

Ethiopia had to assure Somalia of its intentions and that it considered it more than a neighbor reminding the sacrifice Ethiopians had paid to foil the terrorists that threatened the very existence of the country. Hence, it rejected the hostile and exaggerated allegations. But Ethiopia also realized that there was the interference of other countries which contributed to inflate the accusation that Ethiopia was about to invade Somalia. However, Ethiopia reminded all that its past diplomatic records show that it has never embarked upon similar aggressions. On the contrary, it has always been awarded by the UN for its consistent contribution to peacemaking and peacekeeping.

But at the same time, Ethiopia had to make it clear to the world that it would leave no stone unturned to seek and achieve access to the sea in a negotiated, diplomatic, and peaceful manner by carrying out all the necessary transactional exchanges. It explained that granting access to the sea to Ethiopia would be a huge positive and highly advantageous to both parties. What is more, in the long run, the subsequent developments would also be a huge economic stimulus to the nations of the Horn of Africa and beyond.

Moreover, experts have determined that Ethiopia’s economic expansion would be a blessing to the entire sub-region as well because the exchange of trade and commerce with Ethiopia would also benefit its neighbors just as the GERD was also considered as a contribution to further positively integrating the sub-region. In the meantime, it is also noted that it is within the spirit of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and a step closer to attaining AU’s long-term objective and program of Agenda 2063.

Finally, the Ankara Declaration came by and began to play a key role in de-escalating the tension between Ethiopia and Somalia. Thanks to the generous initiative and intervention of Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheik Mohammed, and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a new agreement to resolve the crisis through peaceful negotiation and avoid any confrontation that could have involved force-blowing out of proportions. The intervention of Ankara hence defused the risk of an escalation.

As a follow-up to the Ankara Declaration, high-ranking officials of both nations exchanged visits to the capitals of the two countries. The President of Somalia visited Ethiopia and held talks with the Ethiopian Premier. And a few days ago Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed paid a visit to Mogadishu as part of this new development.

In his statement after the visit, Prime Minister Abiy has said that tremendous progress has been recorded in the bilateral and regional relations of the two countries.

The relations have begun to include multiple areas not only diplomatic and political issues but also peace and security matters and trade and commercial ties. Eventually, the issue of access to the sea would be a part of the discussions in the ‘Ankara spirit’.

Once Somalia comes to realize what sort of advantages it would have with these close relations with Ethiopia, there would be even more significant development in the relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu.

Meanwhile, Somalia has acknowledged and expressed gratitude that Ethiopia has done a lot to preserve its survival in the face of several challenges such as the vicious attacks by al Shabaab considered by many a terrorist group.

Thousands of Ethiopian soldiers have been deployed to Mogadishu to help it foil the assaults. Besides, hundreds of Somali law enforcement forces were given training in Ethiopia, and all this is now bound to resume, even strengthened given the renewed spirit of the relations between the two states.

Cooperation will be carried out in all spheres of activities and the fruits of the Ankara Agreement will hopefully lead to further peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.

With the blessings of the GERD and access to the sea, Ethiopia’s economic progress will begin to fly at full speed. The resulting impact will not be limited to Ethiopia alone but will spread across the sub-region as well. And such development will have its own positive effects on the strengthening of regional peace and stability.

By Ethiopian Herald.