IGAD’s Absence During the Horn’s Crises

The East African region, especially the Horn of Africa, is exhibiting uncertainty that was unseen in the past. After decades of economic prospects, regional integration, potential grounds for democratic transition, as well as international leadership, the region has descended again into chaos.

War is ravaging Ethiopia. The Sudan has succumbed to another coup as a final straw in a failed exercise to civilian leadership. Somalia’s elections are yet to be conducted and tensions are still high regarding the schedule. Eritrea’s engagement in the war in Ethiopia has cost both countries dearly although hopes were high that their cooperation would be a regional booster given the lifting of sanctions on Eritrea in 2018. Djibouti’s political life seems to hang on one man whose alleged illness rocks the political space. A relatively stable entity, Kenya, is in spite with Somalia over the Indian Ocean maritime dispute. This had sometimes led to a skirmish between the two sides in the past.

There is also a long-standing debate between Kenya and Somalia where the later accuses the former of arming rebel groups operating in the country. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) intervened by forming a fact-finding mission which investigated Somalia’s complaints that Kenya was violating its sovereignty, in an intervention aimed at easing tensions. This initiation by IGAD was called for by Somalia which wanted an independent investigation to verify claims that Kenya was arming and training militia to fight the Somalia National Army forces stationed in Gedo near the border with Kenya. But IGAD said it found no evidence corroborating the claims.

Immediately after, Somalia rebuffed the decision and started threatening to leave the bloc which embraces Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda as members.

“FGS (Federal Government of Somalia) calls for immediate withdrawal of the baseless and unfair report and demands an apology, failure to which Somalia is considering withdrawing from IGAD,” reads a January 27, 2021, statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

This, according to analysts, is an indication that the regional bloc is lacking popularity among its members as it failed to grow as expected since its founding in 1986.

While relations between Kenya and Somalia have been strained for some time over economic and maritime boundary issues, according to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), new alliances in the region are now making the situation worse. This accusation added another diplomatic confrontation in the region – between Somalia and Djibouti, ISS piece adds.

Adding insult to injury, the recent decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the maritime dispute between the two countries on the Indian Ocean has exacerbated the tensions. While the “final and binding” decision by the ICJ sided more to the Somali claims, Kenya expressed its dissatisfaction and rejected the decision. The decision by the ICJ is said to be siding with Somalia because it concurred with Somalia as to how the maritime border should continue following a straight line from where the land border ends. However, the decision demarcated a new maritime boundary for the two countries.

Kenyan lawyers and government officials had been exploring other legal means of reversing the decision by the ICJ.

“The case has increasingly poisoned relations between Somalia and Kenya – especially over the last two years. Amid the legal battle, both sides engaged in an escalatory cycle of tit-for-tat measures,” observes Meron Elias, Horn of Africa researcher at the International Crisis Group in an interview on the Group’s website.

The regional block’s calls and demands are not also heeded including by member states. For instance, a recent call by IGAD for a peaceful resolution of political differences in Ethiopia, rather than an armed conflict, fell on deaf ears.

“Countries in the Horn are being drawn into the battle, threatening to destabilize an already fragile region. Despite the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) engagement in the latest conflict, the regional body may not be able to resolve the problem alone,” ISS’s Selam Tadesse remarked.

According to an article she published on ISS website, rearrangement of alliances in the region over the past three years has exacerbated the crisis. Ethiopia’s increased affiliation to Somalia’s central government (rather than its states) and Eritrea’s resumption of cooperation with Somalia after more than a decade of estranged relations, have boosted Somalia’s central government. The three nations cooperate and agree on various political, social and economic issues.

Although this alliance was hoped to bring Eritrea back into the regional bloc, it rather became a separate entity compromising IGAD. Selam observed in 2020 that, “If the three states concerned aren’t cautious, their agreement could increase distrust between states in the region” who might think that an alliance rivaling the regional bloc is in the making.

A study titled “Cooperation and Conflict at the Horn of Africa: A New Regional Bloc Between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia and Its Consequences for Eastern Africa” conducted by Ingo Henneberg and Sören Stapel indicated that the three countries proposed to form a new regional bloc at the Horn of Africa (HoA), occasionally referred to as the Horn of Africa Cooperation (HoAC).

“The proposal came as a surprise to the casual observer of regional politics in the HoA. Cooperation between the three states was unthinkable until very recently… The proposal to form a HoAC regional bloc between Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia could be another step [towards regional peace and development]. Their cooperation promises to bring about lasting peaceful relations among the states in the HoA. Regional cooperation between the three states is urgently needed – also beyond the security realm,” the Authors concluded.

Ethiopia’s 10 year’s prospective plan also highlights this partnership and hails it as a means to enhance the benefits the three countries could get out of their population and neighborhood.

On the other hand, apart from expressions of interest, IGAD did not try to denounce atrocities as a result of the conflict in Ethiopia and demanded an end to the war.

Although Sudan has been on a non-stop tussle between the civilian and military sections of the government that has come to replace Al-Bashir, tensions between the two have hit new heights over the past month. After the failed coup attempts of September 21, 2021, the rifts between the two sections have noticeably widened. The building tensions finally led to the detention of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and his cabinet members by the military. The latter also dissolved government and declared a state of emergency.

The situation in Sudan saw the current chairman of IGAD, Abdalla Hamdok, detained for a couple of days before he was released. The regional bloc denounced the development but the regional bloc’s clout in ensuring the release of its chairman is questionable.

The general picture of IGAD in the region is fading despite efforts by the bloc to remain relevant. Countries in the region succumb to interventions from afar than negotiated outcomes through the bloc they formed. Although arguments take the line that IGAD was not given the power to do so, it could have placed itself as a priority entity for such issues by now – given its age.

Hence, some analysts are of the view that IGAD is more or less failing the region and silently observing when it plunges into chaos.

By Reporter.