Kenyan Polling Firm Didn’t Rank Trans Nzoia Governor Natembeya As Western Kenya’s ‘Kingpin’
IN SHORT: A graphic circulating on Facebook shows a May 2025 poll, allegedly conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa, that ranks George Natembeya as the most influential Luhya leader. But the research firm says the poll is fake.
A graphic circulating on Facebook appears to show the results of a poll by Trends and Insights For Africa (Tifa) that ranks the top political leaders in western Kenya.
Tifa is a research firm with transparent and credible polling methods.
The poll, allegedly conducted in May 2025, places Trans Nzoia governor George Natembeya far ahead of his peers, fuelling speculation about his growing political influence in the region.
Trans Nzoia county is located about 400 kilometres from Nairobi, Kenya’s capital.
The poll is titled: “Latest poll May 2025. Who is the Luhya Kingpin/spokesperson?”
It shows that Natembeya enjoys a commanding 93.06% approval rating among the Luhya community.
He is followed by national assembly speaker Moses Wetang’ula with 3.47%, prime cabinet secretary Musalia Mudavadi with 2.89%, and former devolution cabinet secretary Eugene Wamalwa with 0.58%.
The Luhya community is one of the largest ethnic groups in Kenya, with the majority of its members residing in the western part of the country. Its votes are highly sought after in national politics.
In Kenya, being labelled a “kingpin” typically signifies recognition as the most influential political leader or power broker from a particular region or ethnic group.
The poll began to circulate just days after Natembeya appeared in court on corruption-related charges, including conflict of interest, unlawful acquisition of public property and abuse of office. His legal troubles have put him in the national spotlight.
The poll also appears here, here, here and here. But is it legitimate? We checked.
Fake poll
Although the poll is attributed to Tifa, it does not appear on the firm’s official website, where all legitimate survey findings are regularly published.
Tifa’s most recent publication, dated 7 May 2025, focused on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission of Kenya and public perceptions of the 2027 general election.
There has been no mention of a western Kenya leaders’ poll on Tifa’s official X and Facebook accounts, which are usually used to share its findings.
Africa Check asked Tifa chief executive officer Maggie Ireri if the poll was legitimate.
“Tifa has not done a poll ranking Natembeya as the most preferred western Kenya kingpin. Consider it as fake news,” she said.
By Africa Check
