Nigeria: How Party Crises, Electoral Commission, Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Wike Will Shape 2026

Prevailing upsets within opposition political parties, the ability or otherwise of the ruling party to manage its successes, and the conduct of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would largely shape Nigeria’s political space in 2026.

Also, the actions and inactions of some key political figures, including President Bola Tinubu; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former presidential candidate, Peter Obi; Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister, Nyesom Wike; Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde, would set the political tempo in the country this year.

For a pre-general election year, 2026 holds a lot of intrigues which will influence the outcome of the 2027 election.

From off-cycle elections to dicey party primaries and tendencies of key political actors and institutions, the polity, this year, is poised to be heated.

In this report LEADERSHIP looks at some of political events and person who would decide the political trajectory of the country this year.

FCT, Ekiti, Osun off-cycle elections

The first election for the year is the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council Elections billed for February 21. The polls will be held in the six councils namely, Abaji, AMAC, Bwari, Gwagwalada, Kuje and Kwali.

Besides the exercise holding right under the nose of the seat of power,

this election already has the trappings of a long tussle between the Federal Capital Territory minister Nyesom Wike and the Senator representing the FCT, Senator Ireti Kingibe, the former Labour Party member who has now joined the ADC.

The Labour Party convincingly won the FCT in the 2023 presidential election. The APC would want to use the election to make a statement.

Next are the Ekiti and Osun off cycle governorship elections. The Ekiti poll will be held on July 20, while that of Osun will take place on August 8.

Like the FCT polls, it will be another test of popularity between the ruling APC and the opposition coalition ADC.

Amupitan and INEC

The Independent National Electoral Commission will be in the eye of the storm as it oversees the FCT, Ekiti and Osun elections. The INEC chairman, Prof Joash Amupitan, would also be a person of interest in the way he manages the electoral process at a time when the opposition has little confidence in the state institutions to be non-partisan.

He had barely assumed office when the Anambra election was conducted. So, the FCT and other off-cycle elections this year will be his first true test as head of the electoral umpire.

Also, how the institution deals with internal wranglings of parties in light of the legal dramas will be intriguing.

The judiciary and political cases

In recent years, the judiciary has been made to bear the burden of decided election cases and party leadership. It has been bombarded with a plethora of political cases. From the Labour Party to SDP, PDP and ADC, the judiciary has had to dispense with thorny leadership tussles cases.

While some are still pending, especially PDP and ADC cases, there are likely to be more of such cases this year.

Tinubu, Govs and APC’s large house

Having opened its doors to a lot of new members – including governors and lawmakers – how the APC manages its successes would be a spectacle to look out for in 2026.

President Tinubu’s political sagacity will inevitably be stretched as he juggles between governance and balancing the varied political interests within the party.

The APC leadership will also feel the heat of conflicting interests from its members, especially in states where governors and some influential members, either ministers or federal lawmakers, are locked in a supremacy tussle.

Atiku, Obi, Amaechi and ADC ticket

The texture of the ADC as a formidable opposition platform would be fully tested this year. Besides its criticisms of the incumbent’s policies, its ability to organise itself, broaden its base viz-a-viz gaining public appeal, and manage the huge egos and ambitions of its key members would be interesting to watch.

How the party’s national leadership, under the watch of Senator David Mark, manages the presidential ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Chibuike Amaechi, would be insightful. The three party chieftains have declared their intentions to emerge the party’s presidential candidate.

How it manages the interests of el-rufai, Tambuwal and other ambitious politicians within its ranks will also be intriguing.

Its ability to win elections will again be put to the test in the FCT, Ekiti and Osun (following its poor outing in the by elections last year Anambra).

PDP, Wike, Makinde and legal battles

The internal wrangling in PDP is another major issue to look out for in 2027. The legal dispute over the national leadership will likely be decided this year. Whichever way it swings, the tussle isn’t likely to go away, considering the entrenched ego-battle between the FCT minister, Wike and Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde. Wike and Makinde are leaders of the two warring camps in the party.

Rivers

From every indication, the power play in Rivers State will feature strongly in the political space this year. So far, the key actors, Wike and the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara have seemingly returned to the trenches.

While many thought that the president’s intervention via last year’s contentious state of emergency declaration would solve the problem, fresh verbal jabs have been exchanged.

This gives a foreboding of what to expect this year: a likely all out political brickbat aimed at establishing who is the political leader in the state between Wike and Fubara.

Kano politics

The politics of Kano State will be keenly followed this year. So far, rumours of state governor Abba Yusuf’s defection from the NNPP to APC has set off a political upheaval in the state and NNPP.

The first casualty of the brewing upset is the Kano State NNPP chairman, Hashimu Dungurawa, who was suspended and expelled by his ward, with the nod of the state leadership of the party.

Although a faction of the national leadership of the NNPP has rejected his suspension and expulsion, the drama is just beginning.

It was gathered that the embattled chairman is a Kwankwaso loyalist. Our correspondent stated on the eve of his expulsion by his ward, he held a lengthy meeting with Kwankwaso in Kano. However after Kwankwaso left Kano for Abuja, the chairman’s expulsion travails began.

The APC in the state has said it ready to receive the governor just as it was silent on Kwankwaso. Clearly with the defection not firmly denied by the governor, the days ahead will be interesting.

Benue’s Akume vs Alia

The battle for control of APC in Benue state between the secretary to the government of the federation, Senator George Akume and the state governor, Fr Hyacinth Alia, has simmered, boiling over a few times.

Recognising the intensity of the crisis, President Bola Tinubu set up a committee led by Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon Tajudeen Abass to reconcile the camps.

Recall that the President, during a visit to condole with the state over an attack that resulted in killings, urged the leaders to resolve their issues and work together.

What’s the north going to do in 2026?

The position of the Northern region with regards to President Tinubu’s second term bid would be suspect this year.

Although the concept of the monolithic North has increasingly become far-fetched, some pundits are still mindful of how some leaders of the region would lean as political events unfold.

Reactions

The national president of the Nigeria Political Scientists Association (NPSA), Prof Hassan Saliu said the political parties, INEC, and others have bigger responsibilities this year, especially if the proposal to hold the general elections this year sails through.

Saliu spoke with LEADERSHIP in Ilorin, Kwara State.

On INEC, Saliu said the new chairman should follow the law and be fair to all stakeholders and ensure adequate consultations with relevant stakeholders.

“INEC chairman should pay attention to staff welfare. The only challenge is that his best might not be good enough for the ruling party, who may later have issues with the orientation of the chairman. My advice is for him to engage continually with all.”

Speaking about APC, he said being the ruling party in Nigeria, it seems to have everything working in its favour for now.

“Most defectors have joined its fold, making it a leading party in the country. While it might remain dominant, I don’t see it becoming the only party in Nigeria, and that would bring peace to the land.

“To maximise the opportunity of being the most viable party in the country, it would need to address the economic challenges facing the masses.

It should also be vigilant in avoiding sabotage from its own ranks,” he said.

With regards to the ADC, Saliu said Peter Obi’s membership of the party is good news.

He however said one outstanding challenge the party faces is that many of its leaders have not connected properly with ordinary Nigerians to win their hearts.

“They’re being seen as no different from members of the ruling party. This is a challenge for the party. The party needs to read the political temperature more seriously to have a good entry point. The chances are bright if they can connect more with Nigerians and conduct seamless primaries that will be acceptable to all its contestants. It’s risky to write off any party Sat this point.”

By Leadership.