Nigeria: Tinubu Will Be ‘Beaten Woefully’ in 2027 – Ex-Minister
He argued that with Mr Buhari dead and the North now bearing the brunt of the Tinubu administration’s policies, the president could be left with only about 3.7 million of his 2023 votes.
A former Minister of Youth and Sports Development, Solomon Dalung, has said President Bola Tinubu will be “beaten woefully” in the 2027 presidential election, arguing that the president has lost much of the northern support that helped him win in 2023.
Mr Dalung, who served under former President Muhammadu Buhari, said Mr Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes in the 2023 election were largely boosted by Mr Buhari’s political influence in the North.
He argued that with Mr Buhari dead and the North now bearing the brunt of the Tinubu administration’s policies, the president could be left with only about 3.7 million of his 2023 votes.
Mr Dalung made the remarks during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today, where he discussed the opposition’s prospects ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The former minister, now a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), said the election would be largely determined by the performance of the Tinubu administration and the hardship faced by ordinary Nigerians.
He accused the government of recklessness and impunity, saying its handling of the country had turned it into a campaign asset for the opposition.
“This administration in the history of Nigeria has been one of the governments that mismanaged the goodwill of the Nigerian people. It is very reckless, it operates on impunity and it doesn’t bother whether what they are doing has any implications on the citizens of the country,” he said.
“By their mismanagement of governance, they are the main campaigners for the opposition party.”
‘Tinubu does not have 8.7m votes’
Mr Dalung said Mr Tinubu’s 2023 result should not be viewed as a reliable measure of his support ahead of the next election.
He claimed that about 5.5 million of Mr Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes came from the North, largely because of Mr Buhari’s political influence and the Muslim-Muslim ticket adopted by the APC.
According to him, that support has now been withdrawn because northerners have become some of the biggest victims of the administration’s policies.
“So, Tinubu does not even have the 8.7 million votes. So, we would rather have 3.7 million votes,” Mr Dalung said.
He said the anger against the government had gone beyond partisan politics.
“This anger is not the anger of the political parties, but it is the anger of Nigeria. People who will decide and determine,” he said.
Mr Dalung also cited the 2026 Osun governorship election as evidence that the influence of incumbency and financial mobilisation could no longer guarantee electoral victory.
He claimed that several governors, ministers and senior APC officials campaigned in the state but could not secure victory for the party.
“Almost 20-something governors were in Osun. About 15 or 16 ministers, the national chairman, were there. All the bullion vans that were rolling into Osun could not deliver the APC. And it wasn’t like the opposition in Osun was organised,” he said.
The APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, lost the 15 August election to the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke. The result has since become part of the political debate over the strength of the ruling party ahead of 2027.
Buhari’s death changed political equation, Dalung says
Mr Dalung said the death of Mr Buhari had fundamentally altered the political calculations ahead of 2027.
He also cited the detention of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as another factor that could affect the ruling party’s support base.
“For those of you who are thinking what has changed between 2023 and 2027, Buhari is dead. There’s a huge difference. He’s no longer around,” he said.
He claimed that Mr Tinubu had also failed to properly inherit Mr Buhari’s political legacy, referring to the events surrounding the former president’s burial.
“On the day of the burial of Buhari, he handed over the legacies of Buhari to Atiku, because he went and occupied Buhari’s house and prevented Atiku from coming even close. They stopped Atiku about a kilometre away from Buhari’s house,” he said.
Mr Dalung said the situation had created an opportunity for opposition politicians to win over voters who previously supported the APC.
Dalung backs Atiku-Amaechi
The former minister also backed former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi as the opposition pairing best positioned to manage the country after the 2027 election.
“Abubakar Atiku and Amaechi are the most experienced politicians and competent enough to be trusted with the management of Nigeria in 2027,” he said.
He described Atiku as an experienced politician who understands the Nigerian political system after serving as vice president for eight years.
He also said Mr Amaechi, who has been active in Nigerian politics since 1999, had sufficient experience to help lead the country.
Mr Dalung said Atiku had also developed a 10-point agenda addressing the economy, insecurity, youth unemployment, agriculture and national unity.
Atiku is the presidential candidate of the ADC, while Mr Amaechi is his running mate. The ADC has emerged as a major platform for opposition forces seeking to challenge Mr Tinubu in 2027.
The opposition realignment has, however, remained fluid, with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso contesting the 2027 election under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), while Mr Atiku leads the ADC.
By Premium Times.
