Somalia: A Return to Dictatorship Amid Tensions Pushing the Country to the Brink
On May 6, the Somali National News Agency reported that 13 members of what it described as the Khawarij militias, including senior commanders, were killed in a planned military operation carried out by the national army in cooperation with local resistance forces in the Mudug region.
The military operation, conducted in the Buri area, 120 kilometers from the city of Baxdo in the Mudug region, also left two militants seriously wounded, according to the same source.
The agency stated that officers leading the operation confirmed it was part of a series of operations aimed at strengthening public security and stability in the region.
This comes as the African nation grapples with a complex security crisis driven by Al-Shabaab, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, as well as the Islamic State group.
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A Complex War
Al-Shabaab periodically carries out attacks across several Somali regions, including the capital, Mogadishu, amid a mounting humanitarian and political crisis shaking the country’s political landscape as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud approaches the end of his term.
In March 2025, the Somali government announced what it described as a “failed” assassination attempt targeting President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu. The Foreign Ministry stated that “this desperate act, which tragically resulted in civilian casualties, underscores the declining capabilities of the terrorists in light of the successive defeats they are suffering at the hands of the Somali National Army.”
While such attacks in Mogadishu are not unprecedented, observers noted that the attempt to target the president came at a time when the federal government was speaking of significant successes against terrorist organizations.
Following Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s re-election on May 15 for a second presidential term, he renewed his pledge to combat Al-Shabaab, reiterating it on several occasions as the declared war against the group intensified.
According to reports, since the launch of armed confrontations against Al-Shabaab, the group has stepped up suicide attacks in Mogadishu, carrying out 57 attacks since Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s re-election last May. A new report by the International Committee of the Red Cross revealed that the rate of security incidents rose by nearly 30 percent compared to 2021, when 43 incidents were recorded, signaling a dangerous deterioration in Somalia’s security situation.
One attack targeted a hotel adjacent to the presidential palace in the capital, wounding senior officials and exposing what observers described as a security failure within Mogadishu’s security apparatus.
Reports indicate that the state’s current security strategy is focused on liberating the neighboring Middle and Lower Shabelle regions from Al-Shabaab fighters as a launching point for eliminating security threats and halting the group’s attacks. This remains the central focus of the federal government’s campaign against Al-Shabaab, which continues to carry out devastating attacks despite heightened security measures in the capital, including concrete barricades and checkpoints at key roads and intersections.
Major Challenges
Somali journalist Abdulqadir Mohamed Ali said that Somalia faces numerous challenges preventing it from fully carrying out its responsibilities, whether in confronting Al-Shabaab or extending security across the country.
In an article, he wrote: “Perhaps the clearest manifestation of the weakness of Somalia’s security and military institutions lies in the continued need for the African mission supporting the Somali army in confronting the movement since 2007. Under its various names, the mission has played roles related to supporting the structures of the Somali government, training security forces, and helping create a safe environment for the delivery of humanitarian aid.”
He pointed to “another manifestation of institutional fragility in Somalia reflected in the government’s inability to combat the rampant corruption permeating state institutions, clearly highlighted by the indicators of Transparency International, under which Mogadishu has consistently ranked among the world’s most corrupt cities for more than a decade.”
He continued: “This reality casts a heavy shadow over Mogadishu’s ability to defeat Al-Shabaab, as tribal and political connections pave the way for individuals to access sensitive military and security positions, negatively affecting institutional capacities both in planning and in the field due to the disregard of standards such as competence, professionalism, and capability.”
He further stressed that “corruption not only creates fertile ground for Al-Shabaab to infiltrate the very state institutions tasked with fighting it,but also undermines international confidence in Somalia’s security institutions.”
Rank Inflation
As Somalia’s security crisis deepens, media reports have highlighted growing unease over a phenomenon troubling both international donors and professional officers alike: “rank inflation.”
The reports explained that in regular armies, “a single officer typically commands a platoon or company of between 30 and 100 soldiers, whereas in Somalia there is one officer for every 1.3 soldiers. This imbalance means there are thousands of officers commanding no one while drawing officers’ salaries without carrying out actual leadership duties.”
According to the reports, “468 documented cases involve individuals under the age of 25 holding the rank of colonel or higher, while 112 documented cases involve brigadier generals under the age of 30, despite the fact that attaining the rank of brigadier general in a military system generally requires between 28 and 30 years of service, meaning the minimum age for such a rank should be around 50.”
The reports also indicated that each high-ranking officer is assigned between five and 15 soldiers as personal guards, with approximately 6,000 soldiers listed on payrolls whose actual task is “guarding officers” rather than serving on combat frontlines. This alone costs the state between $1.5 million and $2 million monthly in salaries for these guards.
Politicization of the Army
While reports speak of corruption within the army’s structure contributing to the deterioration of security, Somali authorities on Sunday, May 10, imposed strict security measures in Mogadishu, deploying tanks and armored vehicles across the streets, closing major roads, surrounding the homes of opposition leaders, and overseeing low-altitude flights by Turkish F-16 fighter jets above the city.
The use of security forces sparked public anger against what critics described as the “politicization” of the security apparatus and its use to suppress dissenting voices at a time when Somalia is enduring a deeply complex security crisis.
This comes amid mounting political tensions, as opposition forces in Somalia announced steps for the post-May 15 period, warning against a “constitutional vacuum” that could further deepen the country’s political crisis.
Days earlier, the opposition accused the government of committing “serious violations,” including according to its description forced displacement, the seizure of public property, the repression of youth, and the use of state institutions outside constitutional frameworks, arguing that the country is passing through a state of “political uncertainty.”
In a statement, the opposition reaffirmed its rejection of “any extension of the presidential term outside the constitutional framework,” as well as its opposition to elections that are “non-consensual or lacking transparency,” calling for adherence to the constitutional path in managing the transitional period.
By Nile Post.
